Top 2021 College MLB Draft Prospects

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Yankees '19 (20)
Age At Draft: 21.2
RapScore: 53.21

BA Grade: 60 | Risk: High
Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50

Leiter was a first-round talent out of high school and ranked as the No. 21 prospect in the 2019 class, but a high price tag and strong Vanderbilt commitment meant he got to campus in Nashville. Draft-eligible in his second year with the Commodores, Leiter—the son of long-time big league pitcher Al Leiter—dominated in his first full season of collegiate baseball, posting a 2.12 ERA over 76.1 innings and 13 starts, while striking out 127 batters (15 K/9) and walking 34 (4.0). Known for his polish and pitchability out of high school, scouts continue to praise Leiter’s moxie on the mound, with a deep pitch mix that includes five offerings if you count a two-seam and four-seam fastball. Leiter is a shorter righthander, listed at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, but he has added strength to his frame since high school, particularly in his lower half. This spring, Leiter has primarily worked with a fastball, curveball, slider combination. His fastball has been up to 98 mph, but averages 93-95 mph, with excellent carry that generates plenty of whiffs in the zone and above it. Teams love the metrics on Leiter’s fastball, and the combination of his size, extension and carry on the pitch allow it to play up, even when he’s sitting in the 90-93 mph range. His curveball is his best secondary offering now, an upper-70s, 12-to-6 downer that he lands consistently in the zone when he wants but can also bury for a put-away pitch. Leiter throws a slider in the low 80s that has less depth but might wind up being a better out-of-the-zone chase offering and he also infrequently throws a mid-80s changeup that scouts loved out of high school and could become an above-average secondary with more reps. Durability was the one concern scouts had with Leiter, and while he did post most weeks throughout the season, he skipped one start to manage fatigue and at times was a bit homer-prone. While Leiter might not project as an ace, scouts see a pitcher who should fit in a No. 2 or No. 3 role and pitch in the big leagues for a long time.

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.8

BA Grade: 60 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Field: 45 | Arm: 70

Davis ranked as the No. 306 prospect in the 2018 class out of Fox Lane High in Bedford, N.Y., but at the time he was seen as a defensive-first catcher with work to do offensively. His loudest tool was by far his arm, with some scouts grading it as a 70 at the time and comparing it to the best throwing arms in the majors while he was still in high school. That remains the case for Davis, whose arm strength is elite and at least a 70-grade tool now, but his offensive development and performance this spring have pushed him up draft boards to the point where most teams consider him the best college bat in the 2021 class. A 6-foot-2, 210-pound backstop, Davis entered Louisville with a swing that was described as too steep, lengthy and stiff. He’s improved that significantly over three seasons, though his swing is still a bit unorthodox. Davis sets up with a crouched and open stance, with his hands at shoulder length before cocking back in his load and striding to an even or closed setup with his feet. It’s a strength-based swing more than a twitchy, fluid, bat speed operation, but Davis combines standout zone recognition, pure bat-to-ball skills and plus power to his pull side to make everything work. Davis has walked more than he’s struck out in his Louisville career, with 31 walks to 23 strikeouts through 49 games in 2021 and was flirting with .400 for a decent stretch of the season while also tapping into a career-high 14 homers. Most of that power goes to the pull side, and Davis’ approach in general has been to his pull side. He’s produced against every pitch type this spring, with an OPS over 1.000 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed offerings, though he has shown more swing and miss against changeups than other pitch types. Scouts are split on whether or not Davis will catch at the next level. He has the arm strength and athleticism—he’s a good runner for a catcher—but needs to work on his blocking and receiving.

Notes:

Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 245 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Rockies '18 (38)
Age At Draft: 21.6
RapScore: 58.1

BA Grade: 60 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50

Rocker was one of the top high school pitching prospects in the loaded 2018 prep pitching class that included lefthanders Matthew Liberatore and Ryan Weathers and righthanders Ethan Hankins and Carter Stewart, among others. Despite ranking as the No. 13 player in the class and a consensus first-round talent, Rocker made it to campus at Vanderbilt where he was the highest-ranked player in Baseball America’s college recruiting rankings history. He delivered on the hype and became the 2019 Freshman of the Year after posting a 3.25 ERA in 16 starts and 99.2 innings with 114 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Because of Rocker’s pedigree and collegiate track record, he entered the tumultuous 2021 draft cycle as the de facto No. 1 player in the 2021 class and remains in the top tier of players despite a lack of consensus on any standout 1-1 player in this year’s group. Rocker has a large, 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame befitting a workhorse big league starter that leaves no doubt about his professional bloodlines. Rocker’s father, Tracy, played football at Auburn and briefly in the NFL. He has power stuff out of that powerful frame, headlined by a fastball up to 99 mph at his best and a devastating slider in the low-to-mid 80s that grades out as a double-plus offering at its best and is one of the better breaking balls in the 2021 class. Rocker has dealt with inconsistent velocity this spring, sitting in the 89-93 mph range at times before getting back to his usual mid-90s stuff. He’s still succeeded and overwhelmed SEC hitters even without his best velocity, but scouts question how that pitch will play at the next level, especially due to the fact that his fastball has played down at times dating back to high school. Rocker experimented with a cutter in the 88-91 mph range this season and has also thrown a firm changeup with slight fading action. Both offerings could give him something to keep lefthanders off his fastball at the next level, and his changeup in particular has shown upside in the past, but both need more refinement and usage before teams will feel confident projecting plus grades. While some teams think Rocker has reliever risk thanks to inconsistent fastball command at times, his pure stuff, pedigree and track record give him significant upside and he should be one of the first arms selected.

Notes:

Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.2

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 70 | Field: 60 | Arm: 50

Undrafted out of high school, Frelick emerged as one of the most exciting players in college baseball, combining a mix of explosive athleticism and speed at a premium position with high contact skills and strong game performance. Frelick is a quick-burst athlete who accelerates fast into 70-grade speed, consistently getting home to first in 4.0 seconds from the left side and sometimes a tick under. An infielder in high school, Frelick moved to the outfield and played primarily right field his first two years, but he handled center field in 2021 and showed strong instincts that improved throughout the season en route to becoming the ACC defensive player of the year. His speed translates to good range in center field, where he has a fringe-average arm with good accuracy. Frelick hit .359/.443/.559 in 2021, showing a simple, direct swing from the left side without much movement. At 5-foot-9, he has a small strike zone and mostly stays within that zone, with good hand-eye coordination to make frequent contact, even on times when he does chase. Frelick does a good job of going with where the ball is pitched, with quick hands, and he's able to pull inside fastballs up and in while also sending pitches on the outer third to left field. Frelick has some sneaky power for his size, with the ability to drive the ball out pull side when he gets a pitch up in the zone, but it's more occasional pop that plays below-average in games. Frelick doesn't get off his best swings on pitches down in the zone, but his bat-to-ball skills and elite speed help him beat out infield hits. Frelick is one of the safer college hitters in the draft, with a chance to be a dynamic sparkplug who hits at the top of a lineup and plays good defense in the middle of the field.

Notes:

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: D-backs '18 (1)
Age At Draft: 21.9
RapScore: 44.14

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 60

McLain was the biggest riser in the 2018 draft class after a huge senior season at Beckman (Calif.) High. The D-backs drafted him 25th overall, but he was strongly committed to UCLA and did not sign. McLain rebounded from a poor freshman season for the Bruins with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League and the abbreviated 2020 season. He followed up with his best season as a junior this spring, batting .323/.429/.569 with nine home runs during the regular season despite missing nearly three weeks with a broken thumb. McLain is undersized at a listed 5-foot-11, 170 pounds, but he is a dangerous hitter who is strong in his frame. He has a short, direct swing and consistently lines balls hard from gap to gap. He has a knack for finding the barrel, separates balls from strikes and rarely chases outside the strike zone. He is a consensus above-average to plus hitter and projects to hit at the top of a lineup for a first-division team. The only question about McLain’s offensive game is how much power he will produce. Though he hit for power in college, his fringe-average raw power will likely translate more to doubles with a wood bat and limit him to 10-15 home runs per season. He has plus speed and consistently runs hard to beat out infield singles and leg out doubles and triples. McLain played shortstop the last two seasons at UCLA and is playable there, but he lacks the natural actions for the position and projects better at second base. Some teams prefer him in center field, where he played as a freshman, and others think he projects best as a multi-positional player who bounces around the diamond. He is an instinctive defender who positions himself well, gets good reads off the bat and has above-average arm strength at any position. Regardless of where he ends up defensively, McLain is one of the top hitters in the class and will be taken in the first round again this year. He projects to be an everyday player who hits near the top of the order for a first-division team.

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.3
RapScore: 50.47

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55

In a year where teams are frustrated by the lack of college hitters with lengthy track records of production, Cowser is a rare safe harbor who provides a long history of hitting. He hit .374/.490/.680 as a second-year sophomore with 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 20 attempts. He’s hit .354/.460/.608 for his career at Sam Houston State with more walks (78) than strikeouts (70). And he became the first player in school history to play for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team when he did so in 2019 after his freshman season, so scouts got to see him against top competition during the summer. That solid performance with Team USA helps blunt some of the criticisms that he played at a mid-major school. A high school teammate of Texas righthander and likely first-rounder Ty Madden (as well as 2019 supplemental first-round pick J.J. Goss and second-rounder Mathew Thompson), Cowser finished the season on an 18-game hitting streak. Cowser rarely misses a fastball. According to statistics compiled by Synergy, he has 17 extra-base hits on fastballs and just 19 swings and misses. He is more a hitter than a slugger for now, but he’s started to add strength and scouts wouldn’t be surprised to see his knack for hitting turn into 20-25 home run power eventually. Many of his home runs for now are pull shots or opposite-field balls that just clear the wall. Cowser is a plus runner who takes direct routes although his reads sometimes are a little slower than ideal. He shows an above-average arm when he lets loose and does a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly. He should be able to stay in center field at least for a few years, and maybe longer than that depending on how his body matures. As a lefthanded hitter and up-the-middle defender with excellent hand-eye coordination and speed, Cowser is one of the safer bets in the first round.

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Royals '18 (34)
Age At Draft: 21.4
RapScore: 53.23

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 55

In Madden’s senior season at Houston’s Cypress Ranch High, he was the ace of a team that also included junior righthanders J.J. Goss (a 2019 supplemental first-round pick of the Rays) and Matthew Thompson (a 2019 second-round pick of the White Sox). Outfielder Colton Cowser, another likely 2021 first-round pick, roamed the outfield and catcher Jared Alvarez-Lopez was a 2019 17th-round pick. Madden ranked No. 238 on Baseball America’s Top 500 draft prospects coming out of high school. The Royals selected him in the 34th round in 2018, but he headed to Texas instead, where he stepped into the weekend rotation by the end of his freshman season. Madden sat 90-93 mph in his first two seasons at Texas, but this year he’s proven to be one of the hardest throwing starters in college baseball, sitting 94-96 mph and regularly getting to 99. He also proved to be one of the most consistent Friday night starters in the country, combining that top-end velocity with above-average control. Madden’s plus fastball doesn’t have elite movement to go with that velocity, which may limit which teams are most enamored with him. His heater is much more effective down in the zone than up—hitters hit .333/.350/.846 on his fastball when he spotted it in the upper third of the strike zone, but only .179/.179/.282 in the bottom third. His fastball does pair well with his slider (which earns 60 grades as well and will flash plus-plus). His mid-80s slider has solid downward break with adequate power and depth. Madden largely shelved his fringe-average 86-89 mph changeup in 2021, but it’s been promising in the past. Madden works up and down. He largely works in on lefties and down and away from righthanded hitters. Some evaluators fear he’ll end up as a two-pitch power reliever, but his durable frame (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), long track record of success and above-average control give him a solid path to being a durable mid-rotation starter. He should be the first player from Texas selected in the first-round since Taylor Jungman in 2011.

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.9
RapScore: 46.89

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 70 | Control: 65

With arguably the best changeup in the draft class, intriguing fastball metrics and a track record of performance, Wicks could easily become Kansas State’s first-ever first-rounder, and the first lefthander off the board in July. The solidly-built, 6-foot-3, 220-pound southpaw has been up to 95 mph in all of his outings this year for the Wildcats, regularly sitting 92-93 with run, cut, and ride to his fastball that allows for incredible deception and disappearing action. His low-80s changeup is his most lethal weapon, and the Arkansas native relies on the plus-plus offering as much as any guy with a 70-grade secondary would. Wicks has improved his slider from being fringe-average at best to flashing plus throughout the 2021 season, and he has a curveball in the upper 70s to round out his repertoire. The lefty has great feel to pitch and extreme competitiveness that have helped him find success in the Big 12 Conference, despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park in front of a defense that he hasn’t always been able to rely on. Wicks has earned multiple honors in each of his three years at Kansas State, consistently performing and improving. Following up his summer in the Northwoods League, where the 21-year-old posted a 0.45 ERA over four starts and 20 innings with a 29-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, this season for the Wildcats, Wicks made 15 starts and threw 92.1 innings. He posted a 3.70 ERA, allowing 90 hits and an opponent average of .249, walking 28 and striking out 118. In 203 career innings in the Big 12, he walked 58 and struck out 230. Wicks is a high-floor lefthanded strike-thrower with a history of college performance, and there just aren’t many like him in the draft class. Though he’s not a flamethrower, he can’t be labeled a ‘vanilla stuff’ pitcher with his standout changeup and the fact that his fastball plays like an invisiball.

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 235 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.8
RapScore: 61.98

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50

Bachman made an immediate impact for Miami (Ohio) during his freshman season in 2019, being named first-team All-MAC after posting a 3.93 ERA over 14 starts. For three years now he’s been a reliable starter for the Redhawks and should become the program’s first ever first-round product thanks to perhaps the best two-pitch combination in the 2021 class. Bachman has one of the hardest fastballs in the class and sits in the 95-97 mph range with the pitch, regularly getting to triple-digits with impressive arm-side running action and sink. On top of that, Bachman’s slider has an argument for being the best breaking ball in the class. It’s a hard, biting pitch that is routinely in the upper 80s and has eclipsed 90 mph plenty of times, with tremendous late life that generates whiffs inside the zone and out of it—mostly down and to his glove side. Both pitches grade out as at least 70s and there are scouts in the industry who have put 80 grades on both as well. Bachman predominantly works off of his fastball/slider combination, but he also throws a mid-80s changeup that has some diving action and could give him an average third pitch—though he’s thrown it less than 10% of the time this spring. Despite walking between two and three batters per nine innings the last two seasons, there is some reliever risk with Bachman, thanks to a delivery that has effort and isn’t the most fluid. His arm action is inverted in the back and he’s a palm-up pitcher, which scares some in the industry, and he also finishes with a bit of violence and falls off to the left. That delivery, combined with medical questions (he missed two starts this spring with arm soreness) and the fact that he pitched into the seventh just twice this spring have many evaluators confident he’ll be a bullpen arm in the majors. Whatever the role, it seems safe Bachman goes off the board somewhere in the middle of the first round.

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.0

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70

McGreevy caught scouts’ attention in high school with a velocity spike at the end of his senior year, but his short track record and questions about his signability allowed him to get to campus at UC Santa Barbara. He starred immediately for the Gauchos, earning Freshman All-America honors as a multi-inning reliever before moving into the rotation as a sophomore and posting a 0.99 ERA before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the season. McGreevy picked up where he left off in 2021, assuming the Friday night starter’s role for UCSB and emerging as the best college pitcher on the West Coast. He went 9-1, 2.92 with 109 strikeouts and 10 walks in 95.2 innings during the regular season. A standout shortstop in high school, McGreevy is an excellent athlete who fills up the strike zone with four pitches. His fastball sits 91-93 mph and touches 95-96 with sink and finish to his arm side. His low-80s curveball with downer action flashes plus, and his mid-80s slider and changeup each project as average to slightly above. McGreevy stands out most for his control. He is an elite strike-thrower who walked only 30 batters in 183.1 career innings at UCSB and projects to have plus-plus control, with evaluators noting his misses are smaller than former Gaucho and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber’s were at the same age. McGreevy locates his fastball to both sides of the plate, lands all three of his secondary pitches for strikes and works quickly and efficiently. With a strong, durable body at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds and an athletic, repeatable delivery, McGreevy holds his stuff deep into games and is a no-doubt starting pitcher. Most see him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but he’s young for the class at only 20 and is a candidate to take a jump in an organization with a strong player development team.

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Pirates '18 (36)
Age At Draft: 21.6
RapScore: 50.4

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 70

A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund’s command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he’ll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund’s body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he’ll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he’s also shown he’s comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It’s that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he’s seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 235 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Cardinals '18 (38)
Age At Draft: 21.6

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 70 | Control: 55

Few pitchers in this year’s class will spark more debate than Hill. A 38th-round pick of the Cardinals out of high school in 2018, Hill is the younger brother of outfielder Kentrell Hill, a 10th-round pick of the Giants in 2011. A team willing to take on risk could land a top-10 talent later in the first round. Hill has flashed front-of-the-rotation stuff at his best and was seen as a potential top-five pick coming into the 2021 season. Hill’s 2021 season ended after seven starts when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Hill’s freshman season in 2019 was cut short after just two starts because of a previous UCL strain. In high school he broke his collarbone playing football and broke his wrist while playing basketball. Evaluators noted that Hill was not showing the same quality of stuff in 2021 as he had shown in his four 2020 relief appearances—his plus slider was playing as a below-average pitch. While his fastball showed its normal velocity (92-96 mph and touching 98), hitters more often teed off on it. His plus-plus, low-80s changeup is one pitch that remained top-tier—it’s one of the best changeups in the draft class with velocity separation as well as tumbling depth and fade. It dives down and away from bats, making it a true swing-and-miss pitch. The quandary with Hill is that he has not had a track record of stringing together success—he posted a 6.67 ERA in 2021. No USA Baseball or Cape Cod League season in 2020 means Hill has only 51.1 college innings and nine starts for teams to evaluate. His injury offers an explanation for his subpar performance, but it kept him from stringing together the consistent success teams wanted to see. If he can stay healthy, Hill offers alluring upside with velocity, athleticism and average control. He is an exceptional athlete who was a standout quarterback and point guard in high school—he had Division I football offers and turned down the opportunity to play football in addition to baseball at LSU.

Notes:

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: White Sox '18 (36)
Age At Draft: 21.8

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Field: 45 | Arm: 45

In a draft class light on college bats, Del Castillo entered the year as the clear-cut, top college hitter in the class, with a track record of hitting that dates back to his time as a high schooler with Gulliver Prep in Miami when he was a top-200 prospect in the 2018 class. After hitting .336/.430/.571 over his first two seasons with Miami, Del Castillo took a step back in his draft-eligible third year this spring, hitting .284/.388/.411 through 51 games with more strikeouts (28) than walks (25) for the first time in his career, and just three home runs. That lack of over-the-fence power is concerning for teams who are skeptical about Del Castillo sticking behind the plate at the next level. He would have to play a corner if he can’t catch, which will put more pressure on his bat and his power production. Each of his three home runs this spring were to right field, and historically in his better home run seasons, Del Castillo has mostly used the pull side. He did homer five times in 37 games in the Cape Cod League in 2019, but that power production with a wood bat also came with an uncharacteristic 32-to-9 strikeout-to-walk rate. This spring he did most of his damage on fastballs and struggled to regularly impact breaking stuff, though that wasn’t much of an issue for him in previous years. Del Castillo does have a loose, easy swing from the left side, with solid zone recognition and low strikeout rates for his career, so many scouts still think he’ll be a plus hitter, but the question of defensive profile and impact potential loom after his 2021 season. Del Castillo put in plenty of work over the summer with Royals catcher Salvador Perez, where he worked on improving his arm strength, blocking and receiving but he still needs work in those areas—particularly the latter two. While teams are split about his chances to catch, his pure hitting ability and offensive track record should make him a first-rounder.

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.7
RapScore: 43.15

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Field: 45 | Arm: 45

South Alabama has done a solid job turning unheralded high school recruits into top-of-the-draft talents in recent years, with Travis Swaggerty selected 10th in the 2018 draft and Wilson poised to sneak into the first round this year. Teams weren’t on Wilson heavily out of Andalusia (Ala.) High, but they took note when he hit .345/.453/.686 with 17 home runs and made the freshman All-America first team in 2019. Wilson had a bit of a slow start to the 2021 season and has dealt with an ankle injury that has hampered him. He didn’t homer until his 14th game of the season and through his first 13 games was hitting just over .200. However, his second half was impressive, and he managed a .319/.430/.550 line with eight homers and more walks (33) than strikeouts (20). As evidenced by those walk and strikeout numbers, Wilson controls the zone well and also has a solid all-fields approach, with the power to drive pitches on the outer half over the fence to the left-center gap. Some scouts think his swing is a bit too stiff to truly be a plus hitter, but he does have plus raw power. Those offensive tools are the carrying tools for Wilson, who profiles as a left fielder thanks to limited arm strength and below-average running ability—though he did steal nine bags in 13 attempts this spring. Wilson is in a bit of a tough position with that profile, as he didn’t have a chance last summer to play in the Cape Cod League or with Team USA, where he could have proven his bat in an environment that would give teams more confidence in their projections. Teams that bake track records heavily into their draft models could be more hesitant to take Wilson, but in a draft class light on college bats, he stands out for his hitting ability, power potential and on-base skills.

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 195 | B-T: R-L
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 20.8

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 55 | Field: 70 | Arm: 55

Fabian has become one of the biggest conundrums of the 2021 draft class. One of the youngest college players in the class after graduating from high school early and enrolling at Florida, Fabian won’t turn 21 until September and has been a standout defensive center fielder for the Gators since the day he stepped on campus. On top of that, this spring he has been among the top home run hitters in the country and through 57 games was tied for sixth among Division I bats with 20 dingers. Fabian’s age, defensive profile and power output should have him as one of the top players in the class, but teams have plenty of concerns about his pure feel for hitting and his high strikeout rates. He entered the year with question marks about his swing and miss against spin but has whiffed more than 30% against each pitch type. Fabian has attempted to make some tweaks mechanically to cut down on his strikeouts, removing a leg kick in two-strike counts which did help him lower his strikeout rate, but it’s still higher than the 25% mark teams generally prefer with first-round bats. Fabian does have solid bat speed and plus raw power that has translated mostly to the pull side, but he’s hit a few impressive homers over the right-field fence as well. A righthanded hitter and lefthanded thrower, Fabian should have no issues handling center field and playing it at a high level defensively at the next level. He’s an above-average runner but what makes him a special defender are his defensive instincts, first step, reads off the bat, athleticism and arm strength. He’s at least a plus defender in the outfield and some scouts have gone as far as putting double-plus grades on his glove, making him one of the best defensive center fielders in the 2021 draft class. While some teams might be scared off given the swing and miss, Fabian has upside with his age, power and defensive profile and has more leverage than most college hitters at the top of the draft considering he would still be age-appropriate in the 2022 class.

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 255 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Rays '17 (30)
Age At Draft: 22.0
RapScore: 49.29

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50

Going back to his prep days at Cape Fear High in Fayetteville, N.C., Williams has had plenty of velocity. He was in the mid 90s with a projectable frame at the time and scouts didn’t think it would be too long before he was touching 100 mph. They weren’t wrong, and now Williams sits with one of the hardest fastballs in the draft class. He sits 94-96 with the pitch and has been up to 100-101 mph. Despite that velocity, Williams struggled during his first three seasons—with injuries, consistency and control. As a draft-eligible member of the 2020 class, Williams ranked No. 81 in the class on the upside of his pure stuff despite throwing just three innings after being limited with a finger injury. This spring, he’s put everything together for the first time and excelled in a mostly starting role, pitching to a 1.46 ERA through his first 10 starts and 68 innings, with 108 strikeouts (14.3 K/9) and 18 walks (2.4 BB/9)—good for the lowest walk rate of his career. He improved his secondaries over the offseason and is more consistent with his breaking balls. An upper-70s curveball with 11-5 shape has been his best swing-and-miss pitch this spring, and he also throws a mid-80s slider with short, two-plane bite that is solid when he gets on top of it and keeps it down. Williams also throws a firm, upper-80s changeup that has some dive and gets whiffs when it’s located down, but he misses to his arm side with the pitch. Williams could get drafted among the top-two rounds with his breakout season and loud pitch-mix.

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 225 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Reds '18 (40)
Age At Draft: 21.7
RapScore: 49.63

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45

Cusick’s father played college football in Maine, and Cusick himself wouldn’t look out of place on the gridiron with a massive 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame. He has the power stuff to back it up and has been a hard thrower since his high school days, when he sat in the 92-94 mph range and touched 97. After three years at Wake Forest, Cusick now has one of the best fastballs in the country, a pitch that sits around 95 mph and has been up into the 100-102 mph range with solid life. Cusick will also flash a plus breaking ball that averages around 80 mph and has slurvey shape that looks more like a slider at times and more like a downer curve at others, but scouts have noted that the pitch is inconsistent—a critique that dates back to his prep days. The pitch itself shows quality spin, movement and bite at times, but Cusick’s usability of the pitch needs to improve. Cusick also throws a firm, upper-80s changeup that has slight fading action at times, but his usage of the pitch is extremely minimal. Cusick posted a 4.24 ERA this spring through 12 starts and 70 innings, with 108 strikeouts (13.9 K/9) to 32 walks (4.1 BB/9). He’s a control-over-command pitcher who can put the fastball over the plate enough, but some evaluators think he hasn’t made enough adjustments in his strike throwing to safely profile as a starter, and instead think he’ll be a power arm out of the bullpen.

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 229 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.1

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50

Bednar was trending in the right direction with both his fastball velocity and the efficiency with his delivery during his senior year of high school, but he suffered a shoulder injury and wound up making it to campus at Mississippi State. He impressed in a limited look during the shortened 2020 season, posting a 1.76 ERA in 15.1 innings with a fastball up into the mid 90s and three solid secondaries. His draft-eligible second season was delayed thanks to a neck injury, but since ramping up in late March, he’s been reliable, posting a 3.17 ERA through 12 starts and 71 innings, while striking out 109 batters (13.8 K/9) and walking 18 (2.3 BB/9). Bednar throws a fastball that sits in the 92-94 mph range and touches 97, but the pitch plays up and gets an impressive amount of whiffs, especially up in the zone. Both his slider and changeup have been swing-and-miss offerings for him this spring, though he’s relied much more heavily on the breaking ball. His slider is a mid-80s pitch with hard and tight bite that has good vertical action when he’s on top of the pitch and keeping it down, but it has flattened out at times when he leaves it up in the zone. Bednar’s changeup is a similar velocity, with arm-side running action and while it’s been effective in generating whiffs and limiting hard contact, he uses it less than 10% of the time. Bednar is physical with some effort in his delivery, but he’s filled up the strike zone this spring. His brother, David, is a reliever for the Pirates.

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.2
RapScore: 47.08

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 40 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50

Undrafted last year, Mikulski returned to Fordham for his senior year and his stock has climbed considerably after he changed his mechanics, improved his stuff and dominated the Atlantic 10. His 1.45 ERA led the league and ranked sixth in the country, he struck out a league-high 124 batters in 68.1 innings and his 16.3 K/9 ranked first in the nation. Coming into the season, Mikulski shortened his arm action and increased his velocity, as he now sits at 92-95 mph with a peak of 98. He hides the ball behind his chest with his short, abrupt arm path before the ball pops out from behind his ear, so the deception in his delivery helps his already strong fastball play up because it jumps on hitters faster than they expect. It also helps him disguise his offspeed stuff, though scouts are split on determining his best secondary pitch. Some prefer his slider, which flashes as an average pitch, though it's often more of a fringe-average offering. His 83-86 mph changeup is the pitch with his highest swing-and-miss rate. The action on his changeup doesn't stand out, but he disguises it well out of his hand and he executes it down in the zone consistently to get empty swings from hitters who have to be ready for his mid-90s fastball. Mikulski also flips in a get-me-over, below-average curveball as an early-count pitch. Mikulski is 22 with more control than tight command and an unorthodox delivery that adds to the concerns of several scouts that his long-term role might be in the bullpen, while others see a potential mid-rotation starter trending up.

Notes:

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 187 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.1

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55

Norby never got to show his hitting ability over a full 2020 season, but in 17 games he posted a .403/.439/.500 slash line. This spring, he continued right where he left off with the bat, and showed off his hitting ability, power and speed. The 5-foot-10, 187-pound second baseman has been one of the best performers in the country this spring. He hit .426/.493/.681 with 15 home runs and 18 stolen bases, while walking (31) as many times as he struck out (31) through the first 58 games of the season—and was named one of 24 semifinalists for the Golden Spikes Award for his efforts. Norby has punished fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, with an OPS over 1.000 against each type, according to Synergy. His numbers aren’t quite as loud against 93-plus mph velocity this spring, but he also hasn’t faced significant velocity consistently in the American Athletic Conference, so perhaps that’s nothing more than small-sample size nitpicking. While Norby isn’t the most toolsy player, he seems to do everything on the field well. He’s an average runner who has been into the low 90s on the mound in the past and has more than enough arm strength to offer some positional versatility at the next level. He’s been a savvy baserunner throughout his collegiate career, going 24-for-29 (83%) in stolen base attempts. In a down year for college hitters, Norby has excelled offensively. If he snuck into the back of the first round, it would not be surprising.

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.5

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50

Morissette and his center field teammate Sal Frelick brought plenty of scouts to Boston College to watch the two best college hitters in the Northeast. A hand injury slowed Morissette early in the spring and he re-aggravated it later, which may have taken a toll on his numbers when he returned, but he ended the season with a flourish to hit .321/.398/.497 in 41 games. While Frelick is a more dynamic, quick-twitch athlete with elite speed, Morissette is more steady than flashy, with his hitting ability standing out the most. Morissette has a better pure swing than Frelick. It's a fluid, easy stroke from the left side that's calm, smooth and under control with a compact path to the ball and good bat speed. That helps Morissette square up pitches middle-in consistently, and he generally stays within the strike zone, though he's been vulnerable against sliders at times. Morissette's raw power is fringe-average now with home run juice to his pull side. His swing is conducive to hitting the ball in the air, and with his bat speed, some strength projection remaining and barrel skills, he could get to average power, though it's a hit-over-power profile now. An average runner with an average arm, Morissette played second base this spring and projects to stay there in pro ball, though a team could also try him at third base or possibly the outfield as well in a utility role. Morissette doesn't make the acrobatic, highlight-reel plays or have above-average range, but he's a steady, reliable defender who should fit comfortably at second base.

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 240 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Royals '40 (18)
Age At Draft: 21.7

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

A 40th-round pick of the Royals out of high school in 2018, Bush spent his freshman year at Washington State before transferring to Central Arizona JC for his sophomore season and landing at St. Mary’s this year. A big-bodied lefthander at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, he previously struggled with his weight but emerged this season trimmer and with a better delivery, leading to major improvements in both his stuff and control. He went 7-5, 2.99 with 112 strikeouts and 19 walks in 78.1 innings for the Gaels during the regular season. Bush is an intimidating presence on the mound and powers his fastball downhill from the left side. He sat in the low 90s and topped out at 94 early in the season, but his stuff ticked up throughout the year and he sat 93-94 and touched 96 mph by the end of the season. His best secondary offering is an above-average slider in the mid 80s that gets swings and misses, and he complements it with a potentially average changeup in the mid 80s and a usable curveball in the upper 70s he can land in the strike zone as a change-of-pace offering. Bush struggled throwing strikes in the past, but he showed above-average control this season with his improved physique and delivery. His steady improvement over the past year has teams optimistic he’s on an upward trajectory. With his size, stuff from the left side and newfound control, Bush has pushed himself into top-two rounds consideration and won’t get past the third round.

Notes:

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 209 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Phillies 2018 (39)
Age At Draft: 22.5

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 30 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60

Nelson ranked squarely in the middle of the BA 500 in the 2020 class, at No. 250, thanks to an all-around profile with a compact swing and solid arm strength, but no obvious carrying tools. A year later, Nelson has dramatically shifted his profile and improved his draft stock, thanks to one of the better offensive seasons of any Power 5 Conference player. Through 52 games, Nelson was tied for the Division I lead with 23 home runs, while putting up a .330/.436/.773 slash line. Nelson has a compact and strong frame, listed at 5-foot-11, 209 pounds, and his homers this season have been scattered from the left-field line to the right-center gap, with a majority of them coming off of fastballs. There is some swing and miss to Nelson’s game, and he also struggled with pitches on the inner third and with spin, but when he’s able to get his hands extended he has shown an ability to do plenty of damage. He has the defensive tools to stick behind the plate, with some scouts saying he is one of the better catch-and-throw backstops in the country in a class where most of the top college backstops are bat-first types. He has easy, plus arm strength and has shown an ability to throw quickly and with good carry from his knees, with solid blocking and receiving ability as well. Nelson is old for the class but has a chance to be an everyday catcher with some power.

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Indians '18 (34)
Age At Draft: 21.1

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Field: 45 | Arm: 60
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

Schwellenbach is one of the most intriguing draft storylines as a legitimate two-way player who scouts continue to be split on. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound shortstop at Nebraska is solid at the position, though his foot speed limits him defensively. He doesn’t have the athleticism to stay at shortstop long term and could potentially see a future at third base. He hasn’t shown power but he has consistently high exit velocities off the bat and the analytics are promising. Where Schwellenbach has drawn even more interest is with his arm, as a player who rolls in from short and has been up to 99 mph on the mound. He sits 94 to 97 with super easy velocity but generic life. The righthander has an average slider in the mid-80s with good shape, and a changeup he can throw for strikes that will be an average pitch, though he hasn’t showcased it often. Though his delivery could use refining, he throws strikes, commands his secondaries, knows what he is doing, has good feel for the zone, lands everything, and does it easily. He hasn’t pitched a lot, getting into 16 games out of the Huskers’ bullpen and posting a 0.71 ERA over 25.1 innings with 29 strikeouts this year, which might temper some enthusiasm for his starter upside. Schwellenbach has had arm issues in the past, including a non-Tommy John UCL reparation surgery, but the arm strength and strikes are impressive and he gets a higher consensus rank for the pitching profile.

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.6

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45

Burke was a talented basketball player in high school and a projection pitching prospect thanks to a lean 6-foot-5 frame and an exciting fastball/curveball combination. He’s filled out that frame over three years with Maryland and is now listed at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, though he did miss the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Burke worked an excellent 22.2 innings in the shortened 2020 season, striking out 35 batters and walking 11 while posting a 1.99 ERA. Burke is an impressive athlete for his size and this spring continued to show off the fastball/curveball combination that had scouts excited back in high school. Early this spring, Burke was sitting around 92-93 mph but that dipped over the course of the season. At his best, he’s run his fastball up to 97-98. The pitch reportedly has impressive spin characteristics up in the zone, which makes pairing it with a mid-70s downer curveball a good combination. The curveball has been Burke’s best swing-and-miss pitch this season and works best as a chase pitch as well. Burke also throws a slider in the low 80s, which scouts have said has improved this spring to the point where it’s his most frequently thrown offspeed pitch. Burke also throws a low-80s changeup that’s mostly straight, but the usage is minimal. Despite a low-effort delivery and athleticism, Burke’s strikes have been scattered and inconsistent, with a career walk rate close to 5.0 per nine innings.